Al Talaba vs Newroz: prediction and stats
Iraqi LeagueRegular Season - 3Kick-off on August 26, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Al-Madina International Stadium, Baghdad
The Footlab model makes Al Talaba the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Newroz. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Al Talaba vs Newroz?
A very open match: only 73 Elo points separate Al Talaba (1,601) and Newroz (1,528).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Al Talaba have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Newroz have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Duhok(away) | 3-3 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Diyala(away) | 1-2 | Iraqi League |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Al Karkh(home) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| May 28, 2026 | Al Minaa Basra(away) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| May 19, 2026 | Al-Karma(home) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gharraf(away) | 0-1 | Iraqi League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Al Quwa Al Jawiya(home) | 3-3 | Iraqi League |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Naft(away) | 1-2 | Iraqi League |
| May 27, 2026 | Mosul(home) | 1-1 | Iraqi League |
| May 20, 2026 | Zakho(home) | 2-1 | Iraqi League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Al Talaba win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Newroz win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2025 | Al Talaba 3-1 Newroz | Iraqi League |
How many goals should we expect?
Al Talaba score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Newroz score 1.2 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Talaba | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
| Newroz | 1.2 | 0.9 | 4 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Al Talaba sit 15th in Iraqi League (1 points from 2 matches) and Newroz sit 16th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Al Talaba | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| 16 | Newroz | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Al Talaba vs Newroz?
- The Footlab model makes Al Talaba the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Newroz.
- Where and when is Al Talaba vs Newroz played?
- Al Talaba vs Newroz is played on August 26, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Al-Madina International Stadium, in the Iraqi League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.