Al Ula vs Al Jeel: prediction and stats
Division 1Regular Season - 7Kick-off on October 12, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Prince Mohammed bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, Medina
The Footlab model makes Al Ula the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Al Jeel. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Al Ula vs Al Jeel?
Al Ula starts as the favourite with a 173-point Elo edge (1,828 vs 1,655).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Al Ula have 9 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; Al Jeel have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Al Jabalain(home) | 3-1 | Division 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Al-Fateh(home) | 3-0 | King's Cup |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Crystal Palace(away) | 1-3 | Como Cup |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Como(away) | 1-3 | Como Cup |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 0-3 | Como Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Al Zulfi(home) | 0-2 | Division 1 |
| Apr 23, 2026 | Al Saqer(away) | 1-1 | Division 2 |
| Apr 10, 2026 | Al Sharq(home) | 2-4 | Division 2 |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Al Najoom(away) | 0-1 | Division 2 |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Jubbah(home) | 2-1 | Division 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Al Ula score 1.9 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Al Jeel score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Ula | 1.9 | 1.4 | 3 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
| Al Jeel | 1.3 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Al Ula sit 2nd in Division 1 (3 points from 1 matches) and Al Jeel sit 16th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Al Ula | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | Al Jeel | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Al Ula vs Al Jeel?
- The Footlab model makes Al Ula the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Al Jeel.
- Where and when is Al Ula vs Al Jeel played?
- Al Ula vs Al Jeel is played on October 12, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Prince Mohammed bin Abdul Aziz Stadium, in the Division 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.