Al Waab vs UMM Salal: prediction and stats
Second DivisionRegular Season - 4Kick-off on October 14, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes UMM Salal the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 28% for Al Waab. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Al Waab vs UMM Salal?
UMM Salal starts as the favourite with a 129-point Elo edge (1,677 vs 1,548).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Al Waab have 6 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats; UMM Salal have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30, 2026 | Al Kharaitiyat(away) | 1-0 | Second Division |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Al Mesaimeer(away) | 0-3 | Second Division |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Al-Markhiya(home) | 1-1 | Second Division |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Al Bidda SC(away) | 2-0 | Second Division |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Al-Arabi SC(away) | 1-3 | QSL Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Lokeren-Temse(away) | 0-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 1, 2026 | Al-Gharafa(away) | 1-2 | Emir Cup |
| Apr 27, 2026 | Al Ahli Doha(home) | 1-3 | Stars League |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Al-Rayyan SC(away) | 0-3 | Stars League |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Al Shamal(away) | 2-3 | Stars League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Al Waab win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 UMM Salal win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2025 | Al Waab 1-2 UMM Salal | QSL Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Al Waab score 1.3 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; UMM Salal score 1.9 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Waab | 1.3 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| UMM Salal | 1.9 | 2.0 | 4 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Al Waab | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 15 | 25 | 12 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Al Waab vs UMM Salal?
- The Footlab model makes UMM Salal the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 28% for Al Waab.
- Where and when is Al Waab vs UMM Salal played?
- Al Waab vs UMM Salal is played on October 14, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC), in the Second Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.