Al Wakrah vs Al-Gharafa: prediction and stats
Stars LeagueRegular Season - 5Kick-off on October 8, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Saoud Bin Abdulrahman Stadium (Al-Wakrah Stadium), Al-Wakra
The Footlab model makes Al Wakrah the favourite at 42%, against 23% for a draw and 34% for Al-Gharafa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Al Wakrah vs Al-Gharafa?
A very open match: only 22 Elo points separate Al Wakrah (1,701) and Al-Gharafa (1,724).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Al Wakrah have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Al-Gharafa have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Qatar SC(home) | 2-2 | Stars League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Nantes(away) | 1-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Rouen(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Caen(away) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Al Shahaniya(home) | 2-1 | Stars League |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Al Riyadh(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Šamorín(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 9, 2026 | Al Sadd(home) | 4-1 | Emir Cup |
| May 5, 2026 | Al Wakrah(away) | 0-0 | Emir Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Al Wakrah win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Al-Gharafa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 5, 2026 | Al Wakrah 0-0 Al-Gharafa | Emir Cup |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Al Wakrah 3-3 Al-Gharafa | Stars League |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Al Wakrah 2-3 Al-Gharafa | QSL Cup |
| Nov 21, 2025 | Al-Gharafa 1-0 Al Wakrah | Stars League |
| Apr 11, 2025 | Al Wakrah 1-1 Al-Gharafa | Stars League |
| Nov 22, 2024 | Al-Gharafa 3-1 Al Wakrah | Stars League |
Last archived meeting: Al Wakrah vs Al-Gharafa on May 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Al Wakrah score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Al-Gharafa score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Wakrah | 1.7 | 1.7 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Al-Gharafa | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Al Wakrah sit 7th in Stars League (1 points from 1 matches) and Al-Gharafa sit 3rd (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Al-Gharafa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Al Wakrah | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Al Wakrah vs Al-Gharafa?
- The Footlab model makes Al Wakrah the favourite at 42%, against 23% for a draw and 34% for Al-Gharafa.
- Where and when is Al Wakrah vs Al-Gharafa played?
- Al Wakrah vs Al-Gharafa is played on October 8, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Saoud Bin Abdulrahman Stadium (Al-Wakrah Stadium), in the Stars League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.