Alaves vs Racing Santander: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 25Kick-off on February 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
The Footlab AI model makes Alaves the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Racing Santander. The most likely score is 1-1. If Alaves wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,457 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alaves vs Racing Santander?
On Elo ratings, Alaves has 2,074 points and Racing Santander 2,038.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Alaves vs Racing Santander
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Alaves
3-5-2- 15L. Boyé
- 11Toni Martínez
- 19Pablo Ibáñez
- 21A. Rebbach
- 8Antonio Blanco
- 7Angel Pérez
- 4Denis Suárez
- 14N. Tenaglia
- 17Jonny
- 2N. Valentini
- 1Sivera
Racing Santander
4-1-4-1- 21M. Zabiri
- 10Iñigo Vicente
- 23Iván Martín
- 20Sergio Canales
- 18M. Prati
- 8André Almeida
- 2Álvaro Mantilla
- 17Jorge Salinas
- 5Pablo Ramón
- 24J. Belocian
- 13Julen Agirrezabala
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 02:54 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alaves have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Racing Santander have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(home) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Athletic Club(away) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Valencia(home) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Osasuna(home) | 5-2 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Valencia(home) | 2-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Celta Vigo(away) | 0-5 | La Liga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Barcelona(away) | 2-7 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Alaves(home) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(away) | 2-3 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Alaves wins, 3 draws, 1 Racing Santander win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 12, 2026 | Racing Santander 2-1 Alaves | La Liga |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Racing Santander 1-1 Alaves | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 17, 2024 | Racing Santander 0-0 Alaves | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2023 | Racing Santander 1-2 Alaves | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jan 21, 2023 | Alaves 3-0 Racing Santander | Segunda División |
| Nov 1, 2022 | Racing Santander 1-1 Alaves | Segunda División |
Last archived meeting: Racing Santander vs Alaves on Sep 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Alaves score 1.4 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Racing Santander score 1.5 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves | 1.4 | 0.8 | 7 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Racing Santander | 1.5 | 2.3 | 0 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alaves sit 7th in La Liga (11 points from 8 matches) and Racing Santander sit 15th (8 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 8 | 11 |
| 15 | Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 23 | 8 |
A question about Alaves vs Racing Santander?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alaves vs Racing Santander?
- The Footlab AI model makes Alaves the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Racing Santander.
- Where and when is Alaves vs Racing Santander played?
- Alaves vs Racing Santander is played on February 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Mendizorroza, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.