Albania vs San Marino: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League4Kick-off on October 6, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Arena Kombëtare, Tiranë (Tirana)
The Footlab model makes Albania the favourite at 69%, against 20% for a draw and 11% for San Marino. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Albania vs San Marino?
Albania is a heavy favourite: 1,512 Elo points against 1,053, a 459-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Albania have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; San Marino have 1, 1 and 13.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | Luxembourg(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Israel(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Ukraine(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Poland(away) | 1-2 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Nov 16, 2025 | England(home) | 0-2 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Azerbaijan(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Bangladesh(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Andorra(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Faroe Islands(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Romania(away) | 1-7 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Albania win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 San Marino win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 8, 2021 | Albania 5-0 San Marino | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Mar 31, 2021 | San Marino 0-2 Albania | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
How many goals should we expect?
Albania score 0.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; San Marino score 0.6 and concede 3.3. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albania | 0.9 | 0.9 | 6 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
| San Marino | 0.6 | 3.3 | 1 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Albania vs San Marino?
- The Footlab model makes Albania the favourite at 69%, against 20% for a draw and 11% for San Marino.
- Where and when is Albania vs San Marino played?
- Albania vs San Marino is played on October 6, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Arena Kombëtare, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.