Montenegro vs Armenia: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League4Kick-off on October 5, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)TBC (Montenegro), TBC
The Footlab model makes Montenegro the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Armenia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Montenegro vs Armenia?
A very open match: only 70 Elo points separate Montenegro (1,416) and Armenia (1,346).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Montenegro have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Armenia have 2, 3 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | Slovakia(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Bulgaria(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Slovenia(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Andorra(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Croatia(home) | 2-3 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Moldova(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Kazakhstan(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Belarus(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Portugal(away) | 1-9 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Nov 13, 2025 | Hungary(home) | 0-1 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Montenegro win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Armenia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2025 | Montenegro 2-2 Armenia | Friendlies |
| Mar 24, 2022 | Armenia 1-0 Montenegro | Friendlies |
| Jun 10, 2017 | Montenegro 4-1 Armenia | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Nov 11, 2016 | Armenia 3-2 Montenegro | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
How many goals should we expect?
Montenegro score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Armenia score 0.9 and concede 2.7. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montenegro | 1.5 | 1.7 | 3 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Armenia | 0.9 | 2.7 | 0 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Montenegro vs Armenia?
- The Footlab model makes Montenegro the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Armenia.
- Where and when is Montenegro vs Armenia played?
- Montenegro vs Armenia is played on October 5, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at TBC (Montenegro), in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.