Luxembourg vs Bulgaria: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League4Kick-off on October 6, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Stade de Luxembourg, Lëtzebuerg (Luxembourg)
The Footlab model makes Luxembourg the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Bulgaria. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Luxembourg vs Bulgaria?
A very open match: only 24 Elo points separate Luxembourg (1,403) and Bulgaria (1,427).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Luxembourg have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Bulgaria have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | Albania(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Italy(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Malta(home) | 3-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Malta(away) | 2-0 | UEFA Nations League |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Northern Ireland(away) | 0-1 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | Moldova(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Montenegro(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Indonesia(away) | 1-0 | FIFA Series |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Solomon Islands(away) | 10-2 | FIFA Series |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Georgia(home) | 2-1 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 0 Luxembourg win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Bulgaria win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2024 | Luxembourg 0-1 Bulgaria | UEFA Nations League |
| Oct 12, 2024 | Bulgaria 0-0 Luxembourg | UEFA Nations League |
| Nov 20, 2022 | Luxembourg 0-0 Bulgaria | Friendlies |
| Oct 10, 2017 | Luxembourg 1-1 Bulgaria | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Sep 6, 2016 | Bulgaria 4-3 Luxembourg | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
Last archived meeting: Luxembourg vs Bulgaria on Nov 15, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Luxembourg score 0.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Bulgaria score 1.4 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luxembourg | 0.7 | 1.3 | 5 | 3/15 | 5/15 |
| Bulgaria | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Luxembourg vs Bulgaria?
- The Footlab model makes Luxembourg the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Bulgaria.
- Where and when is Luxembourg vs Bulgaria played?
- Luxembourg vs Bulgaria is played on October 6, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Stade de Luxembourg, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.