Belarus vs Finland: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League4Kick-off on October 6, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Natsional'nyy Futbol'nyy Stadion, Minsk
The Footlab model makes Belarus the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Finland. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Belarus vs Finland?
A very open match: only 52 Elo points separate Belarus (1,422) and Finland (1,474).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Belarus have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Finland have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2026 | Burkina Faso(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Syria(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Armenia(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Cyprus(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Greece(home) | 0-0 | World Cup - Qualification Europe |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | Hungary(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
| May 31, 2026 | Germany(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Cape Verde Islands(away) | 1-1 | FIFA Series |
| Mar 27, 2026 | New Zealand(away) | 2-0 | FIFA Series |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Andorra(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Belarus win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Finland win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 9, 2018 | Finland 2-0 Belarus | Friendlies |
How many goals should we expect?
Belarus score 1.7 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Finland score 1.1 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belarus | 1.7 | 1.8 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Finland | 1.1 | 1.6 | 3 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Belarus vs Finland?
- The Footlab model makes Belarus the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Finland.
- Where and when is Belarus vs Finland played?
- Belarus vs Finland is played on October 6, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Natsional'nyy Futbol'nyy Stadion, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.