Aldershot Town vs Carlisle: prediction and stats
National LeagueRegular Season - 12Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Electrical Services Stadium, Aldershot, Hampshire
The Footlab model makes Carlisle the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Aldershot Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aldershot Town vs Carlisle?
Carlisle starts as the favourite with a 156-point Elo edge (1,902 vs 1,746).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aldershot Town have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Carlisle have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kidderminster Harriers(away) | 1-1 | National League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Fulham U21(home) | 2-2 | National League Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hartlepool(home) | 0-1 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Boston United(away) | 1-0 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Braintree(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | AFC Hornchurch(home) | 4-1 | National League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Yeovil Town(away) | 1-1 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Worthing(home) | 2-3 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Derby County U21(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Salford City(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Aldershot Town win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Carlisle win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | Aldershot Town 0-2 Carlisle | National League |
| Sep 13, 2025 | Carlisle 2-0 Aldershot Town | National League |
| Aug 30, 2011 | Aldershot Town 2-0 Carlisle | League Cup |
Last archived meeting: Aldershot Town vs Carlisle on Mar 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aldershot Town score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Carlisle score 2.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aldershot Town | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Carlisle | 2.2 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aldershot Town sit 14th in National League (4 points from 3 matches) and Carlisle sit 12th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Carlisle | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 4 |
| 14 | Aldershot Town | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aldershot Town vs Carlisle?
- The Footlab model makes Carlisle the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Aldershot Town.
- Where and when is Aldershot Town vs Carlisle played?
- Aldershot Town vs Carlisle is played on October 3, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Electrical Services Stadium, in the National League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.