Hartlepool vs Tamworth: prediction and stats
National LeagueRegular Season - 12Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)The Suit Direct Stadium, Hartlepool, County Durham
The Footlab model makes Hartlepool the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 37% for Tamworth. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Hartlepool vs Tamworth?
A very open match: only 27 Elo points separate Hartlepool (1,763) and Tamworth (1,790).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hartlepool have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Tamworth have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sutton Utd(away) | 1-2 | National League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Aldershot Town(away) | 1-0 | National League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Middlesbrough U21(home) | 0-10 | National League Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Barrow(home) | 2-0 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | FC Halifax Town(away) | 1-4 | National League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Newcastle United U21(home) | 5-3 | National League Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | AFC Fylde(home) | 1-2 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Boreham Wood(away) | 3-3 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | AFC Telford United(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Hartlepool win(s), 4 draw(s), 0 Tamworth win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2026 | Tamworth 1-1 Hartlepool | National League |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Hartlepool 1-1 Tamworth | National League |
| Feb 11, 2025 | Hartlepool 2-2 Tamworth | National League |
| Dec 10, 2024 | Hartlepool 1-1 Tamworth | FA Trophy |
| Aug 20, 2024 | Tamworth 0-1 Hartlepool | National League |
Last archived meeting: Tamworth vs Hartlepool on Feb 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Hartlepool score 1.4 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Tamworth score 2.0 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hartlepool | 1.4 | 2.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Tamworth | 2.0 | 1.6 | 2 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Hartlepool sit 5th in National League (6 points from 3 matches) and Tamworth sit 22nd (1 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Hartlepool | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 22 | Tamworth | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Hartlepool vs Tamworth?
- The Footlab model makes Hartlepool the favourite at 39%, against 25% for a draw and 37% for Tamworth.
- Where and when is Hartlepool vs Tamworth played?
- Hartlepool vs Tamworth is played on October 3, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at The Suit Direct Stadium, in the National League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.