Southend vs AFC Fylde: prediction and stats
National LeagueRegular Season - 12Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Roots Hall, Southend-on-Sea, Essex
The Footlab model makes Southend the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for AFC Fylde. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Southend vs AFC Fylde?
A very open match: only 31 Elo points separate Southend (1,950) and AFC Fylde (1,919).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Southend have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; AFC Fylde have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Solihull Moors(away) | 3-1 | National League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Scunthorpe(home) | 1-0 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Altrincham(away) | 3-1 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Aveley(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Leyton Orient(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Woking(away) | 2-3 | National League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tamworth(away) | 2-1 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Wealdstone(home) | 2-2 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Rylands(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Morecambe(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Southend win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 AFC Fylde win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2025 | Southend 2-0 AFC Fylde | National League |
| Sep 17, 2024 | AFC Fylde 2-1 Southend | National League |
| Apr 13, 2024 | AFC Fylde 0-2 Southend | National League |
| Sep 23, 2023 | Southend 1-2 AFC Fylde | National League |
Last archived meeting: Southend vs AFC Fylde on Jan 28, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Southend score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; AFC Fylde score 1.9 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southend | 1.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| AFC Fylde | 1.9 | 1.7 | 2 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Southend sit 1st in National League (9 points from 3 matches) and AFC Fylde sit 13th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Southend | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 9 |
| 13 | AFC Fylde | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Southend vs AFC Fylde?
- The Footlab model makes Southend the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for AFC Fylde.
- Where and when is Southend vs AFC Fylde played?
- Southend vs AFC Fylde is played on October 3, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Roots Hall, in the National League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.