Alessandria vs Derthona: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone AGroup A - 23Kick-off on February 7, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta, Alessandria
The Footlab AI model makes Alessandria the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Derthona. The most likely score is 1-1. If Alessandria wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,864 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 20, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alessandria vs Derthona?
A very open match: only 3 Elo points separate Alessandria (1,657) and Derthona (1,659).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Alessandria vs Derthona
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Alessandria
4-3-3- 31T. Busatto
- 99L. Samele
- 9Óscar Siafá
- 4M. Nichetti
- 14A. Pellitteri
- 24A. Mastalli
- 17E. Gega
- 23S. Ciancio
- 3E. Rossi
- 8A. Rotas
- 1A. Farroni
Derthona
Not enough data to predict the Derthona lineup.
Computed on October 20, 2026 at 03:50 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alessandria have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Derthona have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Lascaris(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Fezzanese(home) | 2-0 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Biellese(away) | 2-3 | Coppa Italia Serie D |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Derthona(away) | 3-1 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Imperia(home) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Asti(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Chisola(away) | 2-4 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Alessandria(home) | 1-3 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Saluzzo(away) | 0-0 | Serie D - Girone A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Millesimo(home) | 1-0 | Serie D - Girone A |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 1 Alessandria win, 0 draws, 0 Derthona wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Derthona 1-3 Alessandria | Serie D - Girone A |
Last archived meeting: Derthona vs Alessandria on Oct 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Alessandria score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Derthona score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessandria | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Derthona | 1.1 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alessandria sit 1st in Serie D - Girone A (21 points from 8 matches) and Derthona sit 7th (12 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alessandria | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 9 | 21 |
| 7 | Derthona | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
A question about Alessandria vs Derthona?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alessandria vs Derthona?
- The Footlab AI model makes Alessandria the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Derthona.
- Where and when is Alessandria vs Derthona played?
- Alessandria vs Derthona is played on February 7, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta, in the Serie D - Girone A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.