Alexandria vs Progresul Spartac: prediction and stats
Liga III - Serie 5Group 5 - 2Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stadionul Comunal 2, Clinceni
The Footlab model makes Progresul Spartac the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Alexandria. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alexandria vs Progresul Spartac?
A very open match: only 50 Elo points separate Alexandria (1,428) and Progresul Spartac (1,478).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alexandria have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Progresul Spartac have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu(away) | 0-3 | Cupa României |
| May 15, 2026 | CSL Nanov(away) | 2-2 | Liga III - Serie 5 |
| May 8, 2026 | Filiaşi(home) | 2-0 | Liga III - Serie 5 |
| May 1, 2026 | Axi Adunații-Copăceni(away) | 1-2 | Liga III - Serie 5 |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Dunărea 2020 Giurgiu(home) | 0-1 | Liga III - Serie 5 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | CIL Blaj(away) | 3-1 | Cupa României |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Metaloglobus(home) | 2-1 | Cupa României |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Bolintin Vale(away) | 3-1 | Cupa României |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Progresul Fundulea(home) | 2-0 | Cupa României |
| May 15, 2026 | Axi Adunații-Copăceni(away) | 8-0 | Liga III - Serie 5 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Alexandria win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Progresul Spartac win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Progresul Spartac 2-3 Alexandria | Liga III - Serie 5 |
| Dec 5, 2025 | Alexandria 3-0 Progresul Spartac | Liga III - Serie 5 |
| Sep 23, 2025 | Progresul Spartac 0-1 Alexandria | Liga III - Serie 5 |
| May 9, 2025 | Alexandria 0-2 Progresul Spartac | Liga III - Serie 4 |
| Apr 18, 2025 | Progresul Spartac 3-1 Alexandria | Liga III - Serie 4 |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Alexandria 1-1 Progresul Spartac | Liga III - Serie 4 |
Last archived meeting: Progresul Spartac vs Alexandria on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Alexandria score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Progresul Spartac score 2.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria | 1.5 | 1.7 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Progresul Spartac | 2.5 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alexandria sit 2nd in Liga III - Serie 5 (43 points from 6 matches) and Progresul Spartac sit 3rd (35 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Alexandria | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 43 |
| 3 | Progresul Spartac | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 8 | 35 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alexandria vs Progresul Spartac?
- The Footlab model makes Progresul Spartac the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Alexandria.
- Where and when is Alexandria vs Progresul Spartac played?
- Alexandria vs Progresul Spartac is played on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stadionul Comunal 2, in the Liga III - Serie 5.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.