Alfaro vs Berceo: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Group 16 - 27Kick-off on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio La Molineta, Alfaro
The Footlab AI model makes Alfaro the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Berceo. The most likely score is 1-1. If Alfaro wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,789 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alfaro vs Berceo?
A very open match: only 46 Elo points separate Alfaro (1,780) and Berceo (1,733).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Alfaro vs Berceo
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Alfaro
Not enough data to predict the Alfaro lineup.
Berceo
Not enough data to predict the Berceo lineup.
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 04:55 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alfaro have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Berceo have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Casalarreina(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Calahorra(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Anguiano(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Haro Deportivo(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Yagüe(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | La Calzada(home) | 5-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Pradejón(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | San Marcial(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Cenicero(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | River Ebro(home) | 7-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Alfaro wins, 1 draw, 1 Berceo win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2024 | Alfaro 2-2 Berceo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Nov 19, 2023 | Berceo 2-0 Alfaro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Jan 30, 2022 | Alfaro 1-0 Berceo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 19, 2021 | Berceo 0-4 Alfaro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Feb 28, 2021 | Alfaro 2-0 Berceo | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Dec 27, 2020 | Berceo 1-2 Alfaro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
How many goals should we expect?
Alfaro score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Berceo score 2.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfaro | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Berceo | 2.1 | 1.2 | 4 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alfaro sit 2nd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 (13 points from 6 matches) and Berceo sit 1st (15 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Berceo | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 6 | 15 |
| 2 | Alfaro | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 13 |
A question about Alfaro vs Berceo?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alfaro vs Berceo?
- The Footlab AI model makes Alfaro the favourite at 48%, against 25% for a draw and 27% for Berceo.
- Where and when is Alfaro vs Berceo played?
- Alfaro vs Berceo is played on March 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Molineta, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 16.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.