Alfaro vs La Calzada: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Group 16 - 15Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio La Molineta, Alfaro
The Footlab AI model makes Alfaro the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 25% for La Calzada. The most likely score is 1-1. If Alfaro wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,475 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alfaro vs La Calzada?
On Elo ratings, Alfaro has 1,767 points and La Calzada 1,696.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Alfaro vs La Calzada
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Alfaro
Not enough data to predict the Alfaro lineup.
La Calzada
Not enough data to predict the La Calzada lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 05:25 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alfaro have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; La Calzada have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Casalarreina(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Calahorra(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Anguiano(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Haro Deportivo(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Yagüe(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Berceo(away) | 1-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Comillas(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Varea(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Vianés(home) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Casalarreina(away) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Alfaro wins, 1 draw, 1 La Calzada win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 28, 2024 | Alfaro 4-1 La Calzada | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 10, 2023 | La Calzada 1-1 Alfaro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 3, 2022 | Alfaro 2-1 La Calzada | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Nov 21, 2021 | La Calzada 3-4 Alfaro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Jan 30, 2021 | Alfaro 2-3 La Calzada | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Nov 1, 2020 | La Calzada 0-1 Alfaro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
How many goals should we expect?
Alfaro score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; La Calzada score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfaro | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| La Calzada | 1.3 | 1.5 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alfaro sit 2nd in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 (13 points from 6 matches) and La Calzada sit 5th (12 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Alfaro | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 13 |
| 5 | La Calzada | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 12 |
A question about Alfaro vs La Calzada?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alfaro vs La Calzada?
- The Footlab AI model makes Alfaro the favourite at 50%, against 25% for a draw and 25% for La Calzada.
- Where and when is Alfaro vs La Calzada played?
- Alfaro vs La Calzada is played on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Molineta, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 16.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.