Casalarreina vs River Ebro: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Group 16 - 15Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal El Soto, Haro
The Footlab model makes Casalarreina the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for River Ebro. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Casalarreina vs River Ebro?
A very open match: only 20 Elo points separate Casalarreina (1,623) and River Ebro (1,604).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Casalarreina have 5 wins, 1 draws and 9 defeats; River Ebro have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2025 | La Calzada(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| May 4, 2025 | Autol(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Tedeón(away) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 16, 2025 | River Ebro(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Vianés(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2025 | Vianés(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| May 4, 2025 | Peña Balsamaiso(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Berceo(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 16, 2025 | Casalarreina(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Varea(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Casalarreina win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 River Ebro win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2025 | Casalarreina 3-1 River Ebro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Dec 5, 2024 | River Ebro 1-2 Casalarreina | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Jan 27, 2024 | Casalarreina 2-2 River Ebro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Sep 10, 2023 | River Ebro 3-1 Casalarreina | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Feb 26, 2023 | River Ebro 3-1 Casalarreina | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
| Oct 23, 2022 | Casalarreina 1-3 River Ebro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 |
Last archived meeting: Casalarreina vs River Ebro on Apr 16, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Casalarreina score 1.3 and concede 2.2 goals per match over their last 15; River Ebro score 0.9 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casalarreina | 1.3 | 2.2 | 2 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| River Ebro | 0.9 | 1.7 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Casalarreina vs River Ebro?
- The Footlab model makes Casalarreina the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for River Ebro.
- Where and when is Casalarreina vs River Ebro played?
- Casalarreina vs River Ebro is played on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal El Soto, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 16.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.