Algeciras vs Real Murcia: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 2Group 2 - 25Kick-off on February 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Nuevo Mirador, Algeciras
The Footlab model makes Algeciras the favourite at 38%, against 31% for a draw and 31% for Real Murcia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Algeciras vs Real Murcia?
A very open match: only 44 Elo points separate Algeciras (1,886) and Real Murcia (1,931).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Algeciras have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Real Murcia have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tottenham Hotspur U21(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Atlético Madrid II(away) | 1-3 | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 16, 2026 | Hércules(home) | 0-2 | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 9, 2026 | Sanluqueño(away) | 1-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 1, 2026 | FC Cartagena(home) | 2-2 | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Albacete(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Cieza(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Eldense(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Port Vale(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 24, 2026 | Eldense(home) | 3-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Algeciras win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Real Murcia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | Real Murcia 0-2 Algeciras | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Algeciras 1-0 Real Murcia | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| May 24, 2025 | Real Murcia 2-1 Algeciras | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Nov 16, 2024 | Algeciras 1-1 Real Murcia | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Apr 7, 2024 | Algeciras 0-1 Real Murcia | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Oct 15, 2023 | Real Murcia 1-0 Algeciras | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 |
Last archived meeting: Real Murcia vs Algeciras on Jan 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Algeciras score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Real Murcia score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Algeciras | 0.9 | 1.1 | 8 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
| Real Murcia | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Algeciras sit 8th in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 (55 points from 38 matches) and Real Murcia sit 10th (52 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Algeciras | 38 | 15 | 10 | 13 | 40 | 41 | 55 |
| 10 | Real Murcia | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 43 | 40 | 52 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Algeciras vs Real Murcia?
- The Footlab model makes Algeciras the favourite at 38%, against 31% for a draw and 31% for Real Murcia.
- Where and when is Algeciras vs Real Murcia played?
- Algeciras vs Real Murcia is played on February 21, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Nuevo Mirador, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.