Alianza vs CD Marathon: prediction and stats
CONCACAF Central American CupFinalKick-off on October 28, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Cuscatlán, San Salvador
The Footlab AI model makes CD Marathon the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Alianza. The most likely score is 1-1. If CD Marathon wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,997 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 22, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alianza vs CD Marathon?
CD Marathon starts as the favourite with a 163-point Elo edge (1,792 vs 1,630).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Alianza vs CD Marathon
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Alianza
4-3-3- 10L. Menjívar
- 9Gustavo Souza
- 10L. Menjivar
- 7M. Mier
- 6N. Orellana
- 8H. Osorio
- 23J. Monteagudo
- 29E. Hernández
- 15W. Flores
- 20A. Henriquez
- 13M. González
CD Marathon
4-3-3- 11N. Messiniti
- 12Y. Mejía
- 29C. Perez
- 8T. Sorto
- 9B. Farioli
- 10D. Ramírez
- 22C. Argueta
- 4J. Rivera
- 2H. Figueroa
- 16S. Agurcia
- 1J. Rougier
Computed on October 22, 2026 at 10:02 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alianza have 3 wins, 8 draws and 4 defeats; CD Marathon have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | CD Marathon(away) | 1-2 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Cacahuatique(away) | 0-0 | Primera Division |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Inter(home) | 2-2 | Primera Division |
| Oct 9, 2026 | FAS(away) | 1-2 | Primera Division |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Firpo(home) | 2-2 | Primera Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | Alianza(home) | 2-1 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Olancho(home) | 2-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Lobos Upnfm(away) | 0-0 | Liga Nacional |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Juticalpa(away) | 2-3 | Liga Nacional |
| Sep 18, 2026 | LD Alajuelense(away) | 1-3 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Alianza win, 0 draws, 2 CD Marathon wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2026 | CD Marathon 2-1 Alianza | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Aug 20, 2026 | CD Marathon 0-1 Alianza | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Aug 28, 2024 | CD Marathon 1-0 Alianza | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
Last archived meeting: CD Marathon vs Alianza on Oct 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Alianza score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; CD Marathon score 1.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alianza | 1.3 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| CD Marathon | 1.7 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
A question about Alianza vs CD Marathon?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alianza vs CD Marathon?
- The Footlab AI model makes CD Marathon the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Alianza.
- Where and when is Alianza vs CD Marathon played?
- Alianza vs CD Marathon is played on October 28, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Cuscatlán, in the CONCACAF Central American Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.