Alloa Athletic vs Hamilton Academical: prediction and stats
League OneRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Indodrill Stadium, Alloa
The Footlab model makes Hamilton Academical the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Alloa Athletic. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alloa Athletic vs Hamilton Academical?
A very open match: only 60 Elo points separate Alloa Athletic (1,662) and Hamilton Academical (1,722).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alloa Athletic have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Hamilton Academical have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Queen of the South(away) | 2-0 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Montrose(home) | 3-0 | League One |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Stranraer(home) | 2-1 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Hamilton Academical(away) | 0-1 | League One |
| Aug 1, 2026 | East Fife(home) | 0-0 | League One |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | East Fife(away) | 0-0 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Airdrie United(home) | 4-0 | League One |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Celtic II(home) | 1-3 | Challenge Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Alloa Athletic(home) | 1-0 | League One |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Montrose(away) | 5-0 | League One |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Alloa Athletic win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Hamilton Academical win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Hamilton Academical 1-0 Alloa Athletic | League One |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Hamilton Academical 1-0 Alloa Athletic | League One |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Alloa Athletic 3-0 Hamilton Academical | League One |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Hamilton Academical 1-0 Alloa Athletic | League One |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Alloa Athletic 1-0 Hamilton Academical | League One |
| May 11, 2024 | Hamilton Academical 3-2 Alloa Athletic | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Hamilton Academical vs Alloa Athletic on Aug 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Alloa Athletic score 1.4 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Hamilton Academical score 2.2 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alloa Athletic | 1.4 | 1.2 | 6 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Hamilton Academical | 2.2 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alloa Athletic sit 4th in League One (7 points from 4 matches) and Hamilton Academical sit 1st (10 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamilton Academical | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10 |
| 4 | Alloa Athletic | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alloa Athletic vs Hamilton Academical?
- The Footlab model makes Hamilton Academical the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Alloa Athletic.
- Where and when is Alloa Athletic vs Hamilton Academical played?
- Alloa Athletic vs Hamilton Academical is played on October 10, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Indodrill Stadium, in the League One.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.