Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 5Kick-off on September 4, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Yanmar Stadion, Almere
The Footlab model makes Almere City FC the favourite at 73%, against 16% for a draw and 11% for Jong Ajax. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax?
Almere City FC starts as the favourite with a 252-point Elo edge (1,795 vs 1,543).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Almere City FC have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Jong Ajax have 4, 1 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Vitesse(away) | 3-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Jong PSV U21(home) | 3-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Den Bosch(away) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Emmen(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | FC OSS(home) | 8-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | NAC Breda(away) | 2-3 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Emmen(home) | 4-6 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Dordrecht(away) | 1-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Jong AZ(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Jong Utrecht(home) | 0-2 | Eerste Divisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Almere City FC win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Jong Ajax win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | Jong Ajax 0-2 Almere City FC | Eerste Divisie |
| Dec 5, 2025 | Almere City FC 3-2 Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
| Mar 17, 2023 | Jong Ajax 0-2 Almere City FC | Eerste Divisie |
| Oct 14, 2022 | Almere City FC 2-3 Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
| Feb 21, 2022 | Jong Ajax 1-3 Almere City FC | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 17, 2021 | Almere City FC 2-4 Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
Last archived meeting: Jong Ajax vs Almere City FC on Mar 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Almere City FC score 2.1 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Jong Ajax score 1.5 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 73% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City FC | 2.1 | 1.6 | 2 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Jong Ajax | 1.5 | 2.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Almere City FC sit 3rd in Eerste Divisie (7 points from 3 matches) and Jong Ajax sit 20th (0 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Almere City FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Almere City FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 7 |
| 20 | Jong Ajax | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
| 20 | Jong Ajax | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax?
- The Footlab model makes Almere City FC the favourite at 73%, against 16% for a draw and 11% for Jong Ajax.
- Where and when is Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax played?
- Almere City FC vs Jong Ajax is played on September 4, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Yanmar Stadion, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 73% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.