Helmond Sport vs VVV Venlo: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 5Kick-off on September 4, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)GS Staalwerken Stadion, Helmond
The Footlab model makes VVV Venlo the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Helmond Sport. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Helmond Sport vs VVV Venlo?
A very open match: only 63 Elo points separate Helmond Sport (1,595) and VVV Venlo (1,659).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Helmond Sport have 2 wins, 7 draws and 6 defeats; VVV Venlo have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Waalwijk(home) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Roda(away) | 1-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | De Graafschap(home) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | St. Truiden(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Gemert(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | De Graafschap(home) | 2-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | NAC Breda(away) | 2-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Heracles(home) | 3-4 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | AS Eupen(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Fortuna Köln(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Helmond Sport win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 VVV Venlo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2026 | Helmond Sport 2-0 VVV Venlo | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 13, 2025 | VVV Venlo 2-1 Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie |
| Apr 13, 2025 | VVV Venlo 4-1 Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 30, 2024 | Helmond Sport 3-0 VVV Venlo | Eerste Divisie |
| Mar 1, 2024 | Helmond Sport 1-1 VVV Venlo | Eerste Divisie |
| Oct 1, 2023 | VVV Venlo 0-4 Helmond Sport | Eerste Divisie |
Last archived meeting: Helmond Sport vs VVV Venlo on Apr 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Helmond Sport score 0.8 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; VVV Venlo score 1.9 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Helmond Sport | 0.8 | 1.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 3/15 |
| VVV Venlo | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Helmond Sport sit 16th in Eerste Divisie (2 points from 3 matches) and VVV Venlo sit 5th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | VVV Venlo | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 5 | VVV Venlo | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 16 | Helmond Sport | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 16 | Helmond Sport | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Helmond Sport vs VVV Venlo?
- The Footlab model makes VVV Venlo the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Helmond Sport.
- Where and when is Helmond Sport vs VVV Venlo played?
- Helmond Sport vs VVV Venlo is played on September 4, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at GS Staalwerken Stadion, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.