MVV vs Roda: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 5Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 02:45 PM (UTC)De Geusselt, Maastricht
The Footlab model makes Roda the favourite at 52%, against 23% for a draw and 24% for MVV. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win MVV vs Roda?
Roda starts as the favourite with a 103-point Elo edge (1,731 vs 1,628).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, MVV have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Roda have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | FC Volendam(home) | 1-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | FC Eindhoven(away) | 3-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Jong Utrecht(home) | 2-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Patro Eisden(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | KAA Gent II(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Dordrecht(away) | 1-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Helmond Sport(home) | 2-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Emmen(away) | 0-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Alemannia Aachen(home) | 2-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Beerschot VA(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 MVV win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Roda win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2026 | Roda 2-0 MVV | Eerste Divisie |
| Nov 30, 2025 | MVV 0-0 Roda | Eerste Divisie |
| Feb 1, 2025 | MVV 3-2 Roda | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Roda 1-0 MVV | Eerste Divisie |
| Mar 17, 2024 | MVV 0-3 Roda | Eerste Divisie |
| Nov 26, 2023 | Roda 1-0 MVV | Eerste Divisie |
How many goals should we expect?
MVV score 1.2 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Roda score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVV | 1.2 | 1.6 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Roda | 1.9 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
MVV sit 2nd in Eerste Divisie (9 points from 3 matches) and Roda sit 5th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | MVV | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| 2 | MVV | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 9 |
| 5 | Roda | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Roda | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for MVV vs Roda?
- The Footlab model makes Roda the favourite at 52%, against 23% for a draw and 24% for MVV.
- Where and when is MVV vs Roda played?
- MVV vs Roda is played on September 6, 2026 at 02:45 PM (UTC) at De Geusselt, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.