Dordrecht vs Jong AZ: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 5Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)M-Scores Stadion, Dordrecht
The Footlab model makes Jong AZ the favourite at 41%, against 23% for a draw and 36% for Dordrecht. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Dordrecht vs Jong AZ?
A very open match: only 26 Elo points separate Dordrecht (1,672) and Jong AZ (1,699).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Dordrecht have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Jong AZ have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Roda(home) | 0-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Waalwijk(away) | 2-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Jong Ajax(home) | 2-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | RSC Anderlecht II(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Al Khaleej Saihat(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Emmen(away) | 1-3 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 17, 2026 | De Graafschap(away) | 5-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 10, 2026 | FC Eindhoven(home) | 0-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ijsselmeervogels(away) | 7-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Quick Boys(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Dordrecht win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Jong AZ win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 2026 | Jong AZ 1-2 Dordrecht | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 15, 2025 | Dordrecht 1-1 Jong AZ | Eerste Divisie |
| Jan 17, 2025 | Dordrecht 1-1 Jong AZ | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 26, 2024 | Jong AZ 3-1 Dordrecht | Eerste Divisie |
| Jan 22, 2024 | Jong AZ 5-1 Dordrecht | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 22, 2023 | Dordrecht 0-0 Jong AZ | Eerste Divisie |
How many goals should we expect?
Dordrecht score 1.5 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Jong AZ score 2.3 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dordrecht | 1.5 | 1.8 | 3 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Jong AZ | 2.3 | 1.7 | 3 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Dordrecht sit 9th in Eerste Divisie (4 points from 3 matches) and Jong AZ sit 13th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Dordrecht | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 9 | Dordrecht | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 13 | Jong AZ | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
| 13 | Jong AZ | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Dordrecht vs Jong AZ?
- The Footlab model makes Jong AZ the favourite at 41%, against 23% for a draw and 36% for Dordrecht.
- Where and when is Dordrecht vs Jong AZ played?
- Dordrecht vs Jong AZ is played on September 5, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at M-Scores Stadion, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.