Heracles vs De Graafschap: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 5Kick-off on September 4, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Erve Asito, Almelo
The Footlab model makes Heracles the favourite at 48%, against 23% for a draw and 28% for De Graafschap. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Heracles vs De Graafschap?
A very open match: only 66 Elo points separate Heracles (1,792) and De Graafschap (1,726).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Heracles have 3 wins, 2 draws and 10 defeats; De Graafschap have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Den Bosch(home) | 3-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | VVV Venlo(away) | 4-3 | Eerste Divisie |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Excelsior(home) | 3-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Groningen(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 17, 2026 | Groningen(home) | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | VVV Venlo(away) | 1-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Jong AZ(home) | 2-5 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Helmond Sport(away) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Excelsior(home) | 1-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Kifisia(home) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Heracles win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 De Graafschap win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2025 | De Graafschap 0-2 Heracles | KNVB Beker |
| Apr 7, 2023 | De Graafschap 5-3 Heracles | Eerste Divisie |
| Oct 7, 2022 | Heracles 3-2 De Graafschap | Eerste Divisie |
| Jul 31, 2021 | Heracles 2-2 De Graafschap | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 22, 2020 | De Graafschap 1-0 Heracles | Friendlies Clubs |
| Mar 30, 2019 | De Graafschap 1-2 Heracles | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: De Graafschap vs Heracles on Jan 16, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Heracles score 1.1 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 15; De Graafschap score 2.1 and concede 2.7. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles | 1.1 | 2.5 | 1 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
| De Graafschap | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1 | 13/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Heracles sit 4th in Eerste Divisie (6 points from 2 matches) and De Graafschap sit 17th (1 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Heracles | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 4 | Heracles | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 17 | De Graafschap | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| 17 | De Graafschap | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Heracles vs De Graafschap?
- The Footlab model makes Heracles the favourite at 48%, against 23% for a draw and 28% for De Graafschap.
- Where and when is Heracles vs De Graafschap played?
- Heracles vs De Graafschap is played on September 4, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Erve Asito, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.