Alpendorada vs Estrela: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group BGroup B - 22Kick-off on March 14, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Alpendorada, Alpendurada e Matos
The Footlab AI model makes Estrela the favourite at 58%, against 26% for a draw and 16% for Alpendorada. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,370 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alpendorada vs Estrela?
Estrela starts as the favourite with a 133-point Elo edge (2,051 vs 1,918).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Alpendorada vs Estrela
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Alpendorada
4-3-3- 11Jucélio
- 45Pauleta
- 93Nilo Souza
- 47M. Borges
- 8B. Tavares
- 10Jony
- 16Simão Melhôr
- 2H. Meireles
- 3G. Zuzarte
- 23Pepe
- 99Ricardo Jorge Oliveira Morais
Estrela
4-2-3-1- 37L. Antonetti
- 10I. Stoica
- 99A. Marcus
- 14L. Zvonarek
- 39Eddy Doue
- 78Santiago Serra
- 55Rafa Soares
- 21M. Scholze
- 5S. Leković
- 4Bernardo Schappo
- 24Léo Linck
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 07:05 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alpendorada have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Estrela have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Cinfães(away) | 0-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Mação(home) | 3-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Machico(home) | 1-2 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Sanjoanense(away) | 1-3 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Rebordosa(away) | 2-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Arouca(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Rio Ave(away) | 3-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 10, 2026 | SC Braga(home) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Famalicao(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Alpendorada wins, 0 draws, 0 Estrela wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2025 | Alpendorada 3-1 Estrela | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Alpendorada 7-1 Estrela | Taça de Portugal |
Last archived meeting: Alpendorada vs Estrela on Oct 18, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Alpendorada score 1.4 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Estrela score 1.7 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alpendorada | 1.4 | 1.1 | 7 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Estrela | 1.7 | 1.4 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Alpendorada | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
A question about Alpendorada vs Estrela?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alpendorada vs Estrela?
- The Footlab AI model makes Estrela the favourite at 58%, against 26% for a draw and 16% for Alpendorada.
- Where and when is Alpendorada vs Estrela played?
- Alpendorada vs Estrela is played on March 14, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Alpendorada, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.