Guarda vs Ovarense: prediction and stats
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group BGroup B - 22Kick-off on March 14, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal da Guarda, Guarda
The Footlab model makes Guarda the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 31% for Ovarense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Guarda vs Ovarense?
A very open match: only 48 Elo points separate Guarda (1,768) and Ovarense (1,816).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Guarda have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Ovarense have 3, 2 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Florgrade(away) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Alpendorada(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Régua(home) | 1-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Leça(away) | 2-6 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Mar 29, 2025 | Beira-Mar(home) | 0-1 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | União Lamas(home) | 1-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Castro Daire(away) | 2-0 | Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B |
| Sep 20, 2025 | SC Covilha(home) | 2-2 | Taça de Portugal |
| Aug 31, 2025 | SC Celoricense(home) | 7-1 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 7, 2024 | São João Ver(home) | 1-1 | Taça de Portugal |
How many goals should we expect?
Guarda score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Ovarense score 2.3 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guarda | 0.9 | 1.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
| Ovarense | 2.3 | 1.0 | 2 | 4/6 | 3/6 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Guarda sit 13th in Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B (0 points from 2 matches) and Ovarense sit 1st (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ovarense | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 13 | Guarda | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Guarda vs Ovarense?
- The Footlab model makes Guarda the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 31% for Ovarense.
- Where and when is Guarda vs Ovarense played?
- Guarda vs Ovarense is played on March 14, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal da Guarda, in the Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.