Amarante vs Portimonense: prediction and stats
Segunda LigaRegular Season - 7Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal de Amarante, Amarante
The Footlab AI model makes Amarante the favourite at 42%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Portimonense. The most likely score is 1-1. If Amarante wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Amarante vs Portimonense?
Amarante starts as the favourite with a 147-point Elo edge (2,082 vs 1,935).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Amarante vs Portimonense
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Amarante
3-4-3- 10M. Costa
- 20Luís Machado
- 5Joao Ricardo
- 26A. Zangre
- 8Tokinho
- 6Rodrigo Guedes
- 9Cardoso
- 2Gonçalo Cunha
- 3Feliciano Mendes
- 28Diogo Costa
- 65Didi
Portimonense
3-4-3- 2Edney
- 10S. Nakajima
- 19Midana Cassama
- 15Xavier
- 8João Casimiro
- 9S. Yépié Yépié
- 21Yanis da Rocha
- 17João Reis
- 73Marlon Júnior
- 3Jarleysom Amurim
- 1Dudu
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 01:42 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Amarante have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Portimonense have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Ponte da Barca(away) | 2-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 13, 2026 | União de Leiria(home) | 2-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Leixoes(away) | 1-3 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Benfica B(home) | 1-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Vizela(away) | 0-0 | Segunda Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Castro Daire(away) | 1-0 | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Tondela(home) | 0-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | União de Leiria(away) | 0-1 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Leixoes(home) | 0-2 | Segunda Liga |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Benfica B(away) | 1-1 | Segunda Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Amarante score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Portimonense score 0.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amarante | 1.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Portimonense | 0.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 5/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Amarante sit 15th in Segunda Liga (5 points from 6 matches) and Portimonense sit 11th (7 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Portimonense | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 7 |
| 15 | Amarante | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 5 |
A question about Amarante vs Portimonense?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Amarante vs Portimonense?
- The Footlab AI model makes Amarante the favourite at 42%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Portimonense.
- Where and when is Amarante vs Portimonense played?
- Amarante vs Portimonense is played on October 10, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal de Amarante, in the Segunda Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.