APS Bomet vs GOR Mahia: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 2Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 01:15 PM (UTC)Bomet Stadium, Bomet
The Footlab AI model makes GOR Mahia the favourite at 45%, against 30% for a draw and 25% for APS Bomet. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,466 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win APS Bomet vs GOR Mahia?
GOR Mahia starts as the favourite with a 158-point Elo edge (1,683 vs 1,525).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for APS Bomet vs GOR Mahia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
APS Bomet
Not enough data to predict the APS Bomet lineup.
GOR Mahia
4-3-3- 40C. Ochieng Oduor
- 30S. Kapen
- 22B. Ochieng
- 6E. Morrison
- 10A. Otieno
- 26P. Otieno
- 2G. Ochieng
- 5Alphonce Omija
- 15S. Owino
- 19Shariff Sirengo
- 35K. Omondi Onyango
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, APS Bomet have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; GOR Mahia have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Mathare United(away) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 31, 2026 | Tusker(away) | 1-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 24, 2026 | AFC Leopards(home) | 2-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 20, 2026 | Bandari(away) | 2-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 10, 2026 | Mathare United(away) | 2-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Murang'a SEAL(home) | 4-2 | FKF Premier League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Pyramids FC(away) | 1-5 | CAF Champions League |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Pyramids FC(home) | 0-2 | CAF Champions League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Rayon Sports(away) | 1-2 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Al Hilal Omdurman(home) | 1-1 | CECAFA Club Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 APS Bomet win, 0 draws, 1 GOR Mahia win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2026 | APS Bomet 1-2 GOR Mahia | FKF Premier League |
| Nov 25, 2025 | GOR Mahia 1-4 APS Bomet | FKF Premier League |
Last archived meeting: APS Bomet vs GOR Mahia on Feb 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
APS Bomet score 1.0 and concede 0.4 goals per match over their last 15; GOR Mahia score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APS Bomet | 1.0 | 0.4 | 10 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
| GOR Mahia | 1.3 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
APS Bomet sit 14th in FKF Premier League (1 point from 1 match) and GOR Mahia sit 1st (3 points from 1 match).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GOR Mahia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | APS Bomet | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
A question about APS Bomet vs GOR Mahia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for APS Bomet vs GOR Mahia?
- The Footlab AI model makes GOR Mahia the favourite at 45%, against 30% for a draw and 25% for APS Bomet.
- Where and when is APS Bomet vs GOR Mahia played?
- APS Bomet vs GOR Mahia is played on October 17, 2026 at 01:15 PM (UTC) at Bomet Stadium, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.