KCB vs Mathare United: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 2Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Kenyatta Stadium, Machakos
The Footlab AI model makes KCB the favourite at 38%, against 32% for a draw and 30% for Mathare United. The most likely score is 1-1. If KCB wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,460 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win KCB vs Mathare United?
A very open match: only 33 Elo points separate KCB (1,491) and Mathare United (1,458).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for KCB vs Mathare United
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
KCB
Not enough data to predict the KCB lineup.
Mathare United
Not enough data to predict the Mathare United lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 04:10 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, KCB have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Mathare United have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Nairobi United(away) | 2-2 | FKF Premier League |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Bandari(home) | 0-2 | Shield Cup |
| May 31, 2026 | Shabana(away) | 2-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 27, 2026 | Sofapaka(away) | 2-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 23, 2026 | Posta Rangers FC(home) | 0-1 | FKF Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | APS Bomet(home) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 31, 2026 | Bandari(home) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 23, 2026 | Ulinzi Stars(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Mara Sugar(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 10, 2026 | APS Bomet(home) | 0-2 | FKF Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 KCB wins, 1 draw, 2 Mathare United wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | Mathare United 1-2 KCB | FKF Premier League |
| Sep 26, 2025 | KCB 0-1 Mathare United | FKF Premier League |
| Feb 26, 2025 | KCB 1-1 Mathare United | FKF Premier League |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Mathare United 1-0 KCB | FKF Premier League |
| May 27, 2023 | Mathare United 0-1 KCB | FKF Premier League |
| Feb 4, 2023 | KCB 2-1 Mathare United | FKF Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Mathare United vs KCB on Jan 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
KCB score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Mathare United score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KCB | 1.2 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Mathare United | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
KCB sit 5th in FKF Premier League (1 point from 1 match) and Mathare United sit 11th (1 point from 1 match).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | KCB | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 11 | Mathare United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
A question about KCB vs Mathare United?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for KCB vs Mathare United?
- The Footlab AI model makes KCB the favourite at 38%, against 32% for a draw and 30% for Mathare United.
- Where and when is KCB vs Mathare United played?
- KCB vs Mathare United is played on October 17, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Kenyatta Stadium, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.