KCB vs Mathare United: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 2Kick-off on September 4, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Kenyatta Stadium, Machakos
The Footlab model makes KCB the favourite at 37%, against 31% for a draw and 31% for Mathare United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win KCB vs Mathare United?
A very open match: only 30 Elo points separate KCB (1,482) and Mathare United (1,452).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, KCB have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Mathare United have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 14, 2026 | Bandari(home) | 0-2 | Shield Cup |
| May 31, 2026 | Shabana(away) | 2-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 27, 2026 | Sofapaka(away) | 2-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 23, 2026 | Posta Rangers FC(home) | 0-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Tusker(away) | 0-0 | Shield Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Bandari(home) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 23, 2026 | Ulinzi Stars(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Mara Sugar(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 10, 2026 | APS Bomet(home) | 0-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 2, 2026 | Sofapaka(away) | 2-2 | FKF Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 KCB win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Mathare United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | Mathare United 1-2 KCB | FKF Premier League |
| Sep 26, 2025 | KCB 0-1 Mathare United | FKF Premier League |
| Feb 26, 2025 | KCB 1-1 Mathare United | FKF Premier League |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Mathare United 1-0 KCB | FKF Premier League |
| May 27, 2023 | Mathare United 0-1 KCB | FKF Premier League |
| Feb 4, 2023 | KCB 2-1 Mathare United | FKF Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Mathare United vs KCB on Jan 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
KCB score 1.1 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Mathare United score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KCB | 1.1 | 1.0 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Mathare United | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
KCB sit 7th in FKF Premier League (48 points from 34 matches) and Mathare United sit 14th (41 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | KCB | 34 | 13 | 9 | 12 | 36 | 37 | 48 |
| 14 | Mathare United | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 35 | 41 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for KCB vs Mathare United?
- The Footlab model makes KCB the favourite at 37%, against 31% for a draw and 31% for Mathare United.
- Where and when is KCB vs Mathare United played?
- KCB vs Mathare United is played on September 4, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Kenyatta Stadium, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.