Mara Sugar vs Mombasa Elite: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 2Kick-off on September 4, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Green Stadium, Awendo
The Footlab model makes Mara Sugar the favourite at 41%, against 32% for a draw and 27% for Mombasa Elite. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mara Sugar vs Mombasa Elite?
A very open match: only 79 Elo points separate Mara Sugar (1,478) and Mombasa Elite (1,399).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mara Sugar have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Mombasa Elite have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Murang'a SEAL(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 27, 2026 | GOR Mahia(home) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Mathare United(home) | 0-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 13, 2026 | Shabana(home) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 9, 2026 | AFC Leopards(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 13, 2026 | Naivas(away) | 1-1 | Super League |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Nzoia Sugar(home) | 1-0 | Super League |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Luanda Villa(away) | 0-1 | Super League |
| May 27, 2026 | 3K(home) | 0-0 | Super League |
| May 24, 2026 | Mwatate United(away) | 1-0 | Super League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Mara Sugar win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Mombasa Elite win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2024 | Mombasa Elite 0-2 Mara Sugar | Super League |
| Nov 11, 2023 | Mara Sugar 3-2 Mombasa Elite | Super League |
| Jun 23, 2023 | Mombasa Elite 0-0 Mara Sugar | Super League |
| Mar 11, 2023 | Mara Sugar 2-1 Mombasa Elite | Super League |
| Apr 16, 2022 | Mara Sugar 0-1 Mombasa Elite | Super League |
| Dec 15, 2021 | Mombasa Elite 3-2 Mara Sugar | Super League |
Last archived meeting: Mombasa Elite vs Mara Sugar on Mar 16, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Mara Sugar score 0.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Mombasa Elite score 1.0 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 31% probability of over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mara Sugar | 0.9 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Mombasa Elite | 1.0 | 0.7 | 7 | 4/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Mara Sugar | 34 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 30 | 30 | 44 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mara Sugar vs Mombasa Elite?
- The Footlab model makes Mara Sugar the favourite at 41%, against 32% for a draw and 27% for Mombasa Elite.
- Where and when is Mara Sugar vs Mombasa Elite played?
- Mara Sugar vs Mombasa Elite is played on September 4, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Green Stadium, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 31% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.