Where and when is Arandina vs Atlético Mansillés played?

Arandina vs Atlético Mansillés is played on October 25, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Montecillo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Arandina vs Atlético Mansillés: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Group 8 - 8Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Montecillo, Aranda de Duero

Arandina

Atlético Mansillés

The Footlab model makes Atlético Mansillés the favourite at 35%, against 31% for a draw and 34% for Arandina. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Arandina vs Atlético Mansillés?

A very open match: only 68 Elo points separate Arandina (1,713) and Atlético Mansillés (1,781).

Arandina win34 %

Draw31 %

Atlético Mansillés win35 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arandina have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Atlético Mansillés have 6, 6 and 3.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Arandina
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 10, 2026	Becerril Campos(away)	0-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
May 2, 2026	Mirandés II(home)	2-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 26, 2026	Bembibre(home)	3-3	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 18, 2026	UD Santa Marta(away)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 11, 2026	La Virgen del Camino(home)	3-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

Atlético Mansillés
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 10, 2026	Cultural Leonesa II(away)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
May 2, 2026	Mojados(home)	0-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 26, 2026	Almazán(away)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 23, 2026	Almazán(home)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 18, 2026	Palencia CF(home)	2-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Arandina win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Atlético Mansillés win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Apr 4, 2026	Atlético Mansillés 1-1 Arandina	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Nov 22, 2025	Arandina 0-0 Atlético Mansillés	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Mar 2, 2025	Atlético Mansillés 0-2 Arandina	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Oct 19, 2024	Arandina 1-0 Atlético Mansillés	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

Last archived meeting: Atlético Mansillés vs Arandina on Apr 4, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Arandina score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Atlético Mansillés score 0.9 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Arandina	1.3	1.5	2	9/15	7/15
Atlético Mansillés	0.9	0.9	7	5/15	3/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Arandina sit 12th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 (37 points from 34 matches) and Atlético Mansillés sit 6th (57 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
6	Atlético Mansillés	34	15	12	7	31	27	57
12	Arandina	34	9	10	15	32	46	37

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Arandina vs Atlético Mansillés?: The Footlab model makes Atlético Mansillés the favourite at 35%, against 31% for a draw and 34% for Arandina.
Where and when is Arandina vs Atlético Mansillés played?: Arandina vs Atlético Mansillés is played on October 25, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Montecillo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.