Where and when is Arandina vs La Virgen del Camino played?

Arandina vs La Virgen del Camino is played on November 8, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Montecillo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Arandina vs La Virgen del Camino: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Group 8 - 10Kick-off on November 8, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Montecillo, Aranda de Duero

Arandina

La Virgen del Camino

The Footlab model makes Arandina the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for La Virgen del Camino. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Arandina vs La Virgen del Camino?

A very open match: only 5 Elo points separate Arandina (1,717) and La Virgen del Camino (1,712).

Arandina win45 %

Draw28 %

La Virgen del Camino win27 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arandina have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; La Virgen del Camino have 4, 3 and 8.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Arandina
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 10, 2026	Becerril Campos(away)	0-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
May 2, 2026	Mirandés II(home)	2-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 26, 2026	Bembibre(home)	3-3	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 18, 2026	UD Santa Marta(away)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 11, 2026	La Virgen del Camino(home)	3-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

La Virgen del Camino
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 10, 2026	Mojados(away)	1-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
May 1, 2026	Almazán(home)	1-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 25, 2026	Palencia CF(away)	2-3	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 18, 2026	Becerril Campos(home)	0-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 11, 2026	Arandina(away)	1-3	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Arandina win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 La Virgen del Camino win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Apr 11, 2026	Arandina 3-1 La Virgen del Camino	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Dec 6, 2025	La Virgen del Camino 1-1 Arandina	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 5, 2025	Arandina 1-1 La Virgen del Camino	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Nov 16, 2024	La Virgen del Camino 1-0 Arandina	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Feb 26, 2023	Arandina 1-0 La Virgen del Camino	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Oct 22, 2022	La Virgen del Camino 1-2 Arandina	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

Last archived meeting: Arandina vs La Virgen del Camino on Apr 11, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Arandina score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; La Virgen del Camino score 0.9 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Arandina	1.3	1.5	2	9/15	7/15
La Virgen del Camino	0.9	1.4	4	7/15	6/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Arandina sit 12th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 (37 points from 34 matches) and La Virgen del Camino sit 9th (44 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
9	La Virgen del Camino	34	12	8	14	31	37	44
12	Arandina	34	9	10	15	32	46	37

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Arandina vs La Virgen del Camino?: The Footlab model makes Arandina the favourite at 45%, against 28% for a draw and 27% for La Virgen del Camino.
Where and when is Arandina vs La Virgen del Camino played?: Arandina vs La Virgen del Camino is played on November 8, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Montecillo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.