Where and when is Arandina vs Burgos Promesas played?

Arandina vs Burgos Promesas is played on January 10, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Montecillo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Arandina vs Burgos Promesas: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Group 8 - 17Kick-off on January 10, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Montecillo, Aranda de Duero

Arandina

Burgos Promesas

The Footlab model makes Arandina the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Burgos Promesas. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Arandina vs Burgos Promesas?

Burgos Promesas starts as the favourite with a 101-point Elo edge (1,818 vs 1,717).

Arandina win37 %

Draw29 %

Burgos Promesas win34 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arandina have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Burgos Promesas have 4, 4 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Arandina
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 10, 2026	Becerril Campos(away)	0-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
May 2, 2026	Mirandés II(home)	2-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 26, 2026	Bembibre(home)	3-3	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 18, 2026	UD Santa Marta(away)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 11, 2026	La Virgen del Camino(home)	3-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

Burgos Promesas
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 3, 2026	Real Valladolid II(away)	0-2	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Apr 26, 2026	Salamanca UDS(home)	2-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Apr 18, 2026	Atlético Astorga(away)	0-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Apr 12, 2026	Coruxo(home)	1-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Apr 5, 2026	Deportivo La Coruña II(home)	1-4	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Arandina win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Burgos Promesas win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
May 24, 2025	Burgos Promesas 3-1 Arandina	Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs
May 17, 2025	Arandina 0-0 Burgos Promesas	Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs
Apr 13, 2025	Burgos Promesas 1-0 Arandina	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Nov 24, 2024	Arandina 1-0 Burgos Promesas	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Feb 14, 2021	Burgos Promesas 1-1 Arandina	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Nov 22, 2020	Arandina 1-1 Burgos Promesas	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

Last archived meeting: Burgos Promesas vs Arandina on May 24, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Arandina score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Burgos Promesas score 1.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Arandina	1.3	1.5	2	9/15	7/15
Burgos Promesas	1.0	1.5	5	7/15	6/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
12	Arandina	34	9	10	15	32	46	37

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Arandina vs Burgos Promesas?: The Footlab model makes Arandina the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Burgos Promesas.
Where and when is Arandina vs Burgos Promesas played?: Arandina vs Burgos Promesas is played on January 10, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Montecillo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.