Where and when is Arandina vs UD Santa Marta played?

Arandina vs UD Santa Marta is played on January 17, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Montecillo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Arandina vs UD Santa Marta: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Group 8 - 18Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Montecillo, Aranda de Duero

Arandina

UD Santa Marta

The Footlab model makes UD Santa Marta the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Arandina. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Arandina vs UD Santa Marta?

A very open match: only 90 Elo points separate Arandina (1,717) and UD Santa Marta (1,807).

Arandina win32 %

Draw28 %

UD Santa Marta win40 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arandina have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; UD Santa Marta have 5, 6 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Arandina
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 10, 2026	Becerril Campos(away)	0-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
May 2, 2026	Mirandés II(home)	2-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 26, 2026	Bembibre(home)	3-3	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 18, 2026	UD Santa Marta(away)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Apr 11, 2026	La Virgen del Camino(home)	3-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

UD Santa Marta
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 8, 2026	Atlético Tordesillas(away)	1-1	Friendlies Clubs
May 24, 2026	Guijuelo(away)	0-2	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
May 16, 2026	Guijuelo(home)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
May 10, 2026	Almazán(away)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
May 2, 2026	Palencia CF(home)	2-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Arandina win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 UD Santa Marta win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Apr 18, 2026	UD Santa Marta 1-1 Arandina	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Dec 13, 2025	Arandina 0-1 UD Santa Marta	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
May 1, 2025	UD Santa Marta 0-0 Arandina	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Dec 21, 2024	Arandina 2-1 UD Santa Marta	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Feb 12, 2023	Arandina 4-0 UD Santa Marta	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8
Oct 9, 2022	UD Santa Marta 1-4 Arandina	Tercera División RFEF - Group 8

Last archived meeting: UD Santa Marta vs Arandina on Apr 18, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Arandina score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; UD Santa Marta score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Arandina	1.3	1.5	2	9/15	7/15
UD Santa Marta	1.5	1.3	2	11/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Arandina sit 12th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 (37 points from 34 matches) and UD Santa Marta sit 5th (62 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
5	UD Santa Marta	34	18	8	8	53	31	62
12	Arandina	34	9	10	15	32	46	37

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Arandina vs UD Santa Marta?: The Footlab model makes UD Santa Marta the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Arandina.
Where and when is Arandina vs UD Santa Marta played?: Arandina vs UD Santa Marta is played on January 17, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Montecillo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.