Arandina vs UD Santa Marta: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Group 8 · Matchday 18Kick-off on January 17, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Montecillo, Aranda de Duero
The Footlab AI model makes UD Santa Marta the favourite at 42%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Arandina. The most likely score is 1-1. If UD Santa Marta wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 5,941 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arandina vs UD Santa Marta?
UD Santa Marta starts as the favourite with a 131-point Elo edge (1,830 vs 1,698).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Arandina vs UD Santa Marta
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Arandina
Not enough data to predict the Arandina lineup.
UD Santa Marta
Not enough data to predict the UD Santa Marta lineup.
Computed on November 14, 2026 at 06:09 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arandina have 3 wins, 8 draws and 4 defeats; UD Santa Marta have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2026 | Unionistas II(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Nov 8, 2026 | La Virgen del Camino(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Guijuelo(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Atlético Mansillés(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Bembibre(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2026 | Turégano(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Nov 7, 2026 | Calasanz de Soria(home) | 5-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Salamanca II(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Almazán(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Mirandés II(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Arandina wins, 2 draws, 2 UD Santa Marta wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | UD Santa Marta 1-0 Arandina | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | UD Santa Marta 1-1 Arandina | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Arandina 0-1 UD Santa Marta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| May 1, 2025 | UD Santa Marta 0-0 Arandina | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Dec 21, 2024 | Arandina 2-1 UD Santa Marta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
| Feb 12, 2023 | Arandina 4-0 UD Santa Marta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 |
Last archived meeting: UD Santa Marta vs Arandina on Sep 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Arandina score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; UD Santa Marta score 1.6 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arandina | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
| UD Santa Marta | 1.6 | 0.7 | 8 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arandina sit 12th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 (12 points from 10 matches) and UD Santa Marta sit 1st (23 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UD Santa Marta | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 6 | 23 |
| 12 | Arandina | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 13 | 14 | 12 |
A question about Arandina vs UD Santa Marta?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arandina vs UD Santa Marta?
- The Footlab AI model makes UD Santa Marta the favourite at 42%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Arandina.
- Where and when is Arandina vs UD Santa Marta played?
- Arandina vs UD Santa Marta is played on January 17, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Montecillo, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 8.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Jan 17, 2027GuijuelovsCalasanz de Soria
- Jan 17, 2027BembibrevsCristo Atlético
- Jan 17, 2027La Virgen del CaminovsSalamanca II
- Jan 17, 2027Colegios DiocesanosvsCultural Leonesa II
- Jan 17, 2027Atlético MansillésvsTurégano
- Jan 17, 2027Palencia CFvsMirandés II
- Jan 17, 2027VillaralbovsBurgos Promesas
- Jan 17, 2027Unionistas IIvsAlmazán