Ards vs Ballinamallard United: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 23Kick-off on January 1, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Bangor Fuels Arena, Bangor
The Footlab model makes Ards the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Ballinamallard United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ards vs Ballinamallard United?
Ards starts as the favourite with a 130-point Elo edge (1,341 vs 1,211).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ards have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Ballinamallard United have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Loughgall(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Warrenpoint Town(away) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Dundela(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Glenavon FC(away) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Carrick Rangers(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Dundela(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Moyola Park(away) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Institute(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Newry City AFC(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Bangor(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Ards win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Ballinamallard United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | Ballinamallard United 0-2 Ards | Championship |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Ards 2-1 Ballinamallard United | Championship |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Ballinamallard United 1-0 Ards | Championship |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Ards 3-1 Ballinamallard United | Championship |
| Jan 25, 2025 | Ballinamallard United 2-2 Ards | Championship |
| Dec 7, 2024 | Ards 0-1 Ballinamallard United | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Ballinamallard United vs Ards on Mar 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ards score 1.5 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Ballinamallard United score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ards | 1.5 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Ballinamallard United | 0.9 | 1.3 | 4 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ards sit 5th in Championship (7 points from 4 matches) and Ballinamallard United sit 9th (6 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ards | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 7 |
| 8 | Ards | 33 | 12 | 7 | 14 | 50 | 46 | 43 |
| 8 | Ards | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 56 | 51 | 52 |
| 9 | Ballinamallard United | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| 10 | Ballinamallard United | 33 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 52 | 34 |
| 10 | Ballinamallard United | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 44 | 60 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ards vs Ballinamallard United?
- The Footlab model makes Ards the favourite at 50%, against 26% for a draw and 24% for Ballinamallard United.
- Where and when is Ards vs Ballinamallard United played?
- Ards vs Ballinamallard United is played on January 1, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Bangor Fuels Arena, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.