Ballinamallard United vs Ards: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Ferney Park, Ballinamallard
The Footlab model makes Ards the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Ballinamallard United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ballinamallard United vs Ards?
Ards starts as the favourite with a 130-point Elo edge (1,342 vs 1,213).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ballinamallard United have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Ards have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Dundela(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Moyola Park(away) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Institute(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Newry City AFC(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Bangor(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Loughgall(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Warrenpoint Town(away) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Dundela(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Glenavon FC(away) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Carrick Rangers(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Ballinamallard United win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Ards win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | Ballinamallard United 0-2 Ards | Championship |
| Feb 28, 2026 | Ards 2-1 Ballinamallard United | Championship |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Ballinamallard United 1-0 Ards | Championship |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Ards 3-1 Ballinamallard United | Championship |
| Jan 25, 2025 | Ballinamallard United 2-2 Ards | Championship |
| Dec 7, 2024 | Ards 0-1 Ballinamallard United | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Ballinamallard United vs Ards on Mar 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ballinamallard United score 0.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Ards score 1.5 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ballinamallard United | 0.9 | 1.3 | 4 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Ards | 1.5 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ballinamallard United sit 9th in Championship (6 points from 4 matches) and Ards sit 5th (7 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Ards | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 7 |
| 8 | Ards | 33 | 12 | 7 | 14 | 50 | 46 | 43 |
| 8 | Ards | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 56 | 51 | 52 |
| 9 | Ballinamallard United | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| 10 | Ballinamallard United | 33 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 36 | 52 | 34 |
| 10 | Ballinamallard United | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 44 | 60 | 38 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ballinamallard United vs Ards?
- The Footlab model makes Ards the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Ballinamallard United.
- Where and when is Ballinamallard United vs Ards played?
- Ballinamallard United vs Ards is played on October 3, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Ferney Park, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.