Aretxabaleta vs Lagun Onak: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 · Matchday 22Kick-off on February 14, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Campo de Fútbol Ibarra, Aretxabaleta (Arechavaleta)
The Footlab AI model makes Aretxabaleta the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Lagun Onak. The most likely score is 1-1. If Aretxabaleta wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 6,007 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aretxabaleta vs Lagun Onak?
A very open match: only 46 Elo points separate Aretxabaleta (1,686) and Lagun Onak (1,732).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Aretxabaleta vs Lagun Onak
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Aretxabaleta
Not enough data to predict the Aretxabaleta lineup.
Lagun Onak
Not enough data to predict the Lagun Onak lineup.
Computed on November 14, 2026 at 02:56 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aretxabaleta have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Lagun Onak have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Aurrerá Vitoria(home) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Amurrio Club(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Eibar III(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | R. Union B(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Pasaia KE(home) | 4-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Pasaia KE(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Touring(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Derio(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Durango(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Beasain(away) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 3 Aretxabaleta wins, 1 draw, 1 Lagun Onak win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Lagun Onak 1-2 Aretxabaleta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Aretxabaleta 2-1 Lagun Onak | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Lagun Onak 2-0 Aretxabaleta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Mar 30, 2025 | Lagun Onak 0-2 Aretxabaleta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Nov 17, 2024 | Aretxabaleta 1-1 Lagun Onak | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Lagun Onak vs Aretxabaleta on Oct 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Aretxabaleta score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Lagun Onak score 1.3 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aretxabaleta | 1.5 | 1.5 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Lagun Onak | 1.3 | 1.4 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aretxabaleta sit 6th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (17 points from 9 matches) and Lagun Onak sit 13th (11 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Aretxabaleta | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 8 | 17 |
| 13 | Lagun Onak | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11 | 14 | 11 |
A question about Aretxabaleta vs Lagun Onak?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aretxabaleta vs Lagun Onak?
- The Footlab AI model makes Aretxabaleta the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 36% for Lagun Onak.
- Where and when is Aretxabaleta vs Lagun Onak played?
- Aretxabaleta vs Lagun Onak is played on February 14, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Campo de Fútbol Ibarra, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.