Leioa vs Amurrio Club: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 22Kick-off on February 14, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Sarriena, Leioa
The Footlab model makes Leioa the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Amurrio Club. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leioa vs Amurrio Club?
Leioa starts as the favourite with a 169-point Elo edge (1,837 vs 1,668).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leioa have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Amurrio Club have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 0-11 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Albacete II(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Albacete II(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Derio(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 31, 2026 | Derio(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 30, 2022 | Barakaldo(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 23, 2022 | Pasaia KE(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 13, 2022 | Uritarra(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 9, 2022 | San Ignacio(home) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 2, 2022 | Tolosa(away) | 4-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Leioa win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Amurrio Club win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2022 | Amurrio Club 0-0 Leioa | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Nov 20, 2021 | Leioa 3-0 Amurrio Club | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Jul 31, 2021 | Leioa 1-1 Amurrio Club | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Amurrio Club vs Leioa on Mar 26, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
Leioa score 1.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Amurrio Club score 1.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leioa | 1.1 | 1.7 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Amurrio Club | 1.2 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Leioa | 34 | 18 | 7 | 9 | 50 | 34 | 61 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leioa vs Amurrio Club?
- The Footlab model makes Leioa the favourite at 53%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Amurrio Club.
- Where and when is Leioa vs Amurrio Club played?
- Leioa vs Amurrio Club is played on February 14, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Sarriena, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.