Beasain vs Derio: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 22Kick-off on February 14, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estado Municipal de Loinaz, Beasain
The Footlab AI model makes Beasain the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Derio. The most likely score is 1-1. If Beasain wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,390 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Beasain vs Derio?
A very open match: only 35 Elo points separate Beasain (1,817) and Derio (1,782).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Beasain vs Derio
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Beasain
Not enough data to predict the Beasain lineup.
Derio
Not enough data to predict the Derio lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 02:16 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Beasain have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Derio have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Lagun Onak(home) | 4-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Derio(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Durango(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Touring(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Durango(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Beasain(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Santurtzi(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Salamanca UDS(home) | 3-5 | Copa Federacion |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 3 Beasain wins, 1 draw, 1 Derio win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Derio 2-0 Beasain | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 16, 2025 | Beasain 2-0 Derio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Dec 6, 2024 | Derio 1-4 Beasain | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Mar 2, 2024 | Derio 0-0 Beasain | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 12, 2023 | Beasain 1-0 Derio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
How many goals should we expect?
Beasain score 1.4 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Derio score 1.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beasain | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Derio | 1.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 5/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Beasain sit 12th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (7 points from 6 matches) and Derio sit 3rd (12 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Derio | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 12 |
| 12 | Beasain | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
A question about Beasain vs Derio?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Beasain vs Derio?
- The Footlab AI model makes Beasain the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Derio.
- Where and when is Beasain vs Derio played?
- Beasain vs Derio is played on February 14, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estado Municipal de Loinaz, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.