Arkadag vs Şagadam: prediction and stats
Ýokary LigaRegular Season - 18Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Ahal merkezi sport toplumy, Arkadag şäheri
The Footlab model makes Arkadag the favourite at 90%, against 8% for a draw and 2% for Şagadam. The most likely score is 3-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arkadag vs Şagadam?
Arkadag is a heavy favourite: 1,910 Elo points against 1,357 — a 553-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arkadag have 14 wins, 1 draws and 0 defeats; Şagadam have 2, 4 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Altyn Asyr(away) | 5-2 | Ýokary Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Ahal(home) | 2-1 | Ýokary Liga |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Goa(home) | 3-0 | AFC Champions League Two |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Merw(home) | 7-0 | Ýokary Liga |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Köpetdag Aşgabat(home) | 3-0 | Ýokary Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Köpetdag Aşgabat(home) | 3-2 | Ýokary Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Aşgabat(away) | 0-1 | Ýokary Liga |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Nebitci(home) | 0-0 | Ýokary Liga |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Merw(away) | 0-2 | Ýokary Liga |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Altyn Asyr(home) | 0-2 | Ýokary Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 6 Arkadag win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Şagadam win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | Şagadam 1-4 Arkadag | Ýokary Liga |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Arkadag 3-2 Şagadam | Ýokary Liga |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Arkadag 2-0 Şagadam | Ýokary Liga |
| Aug 19, 2025 | Şagadam 1-4 Arkadag | Ýokary Liga |
| May 17, 2025 | Şagadam 1-4 Arkadag | Ýokary Liga |
| Mar 30, 2025 | Arkadag 4-0 Şagadam | Ýokary Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Arkadag score 4.1 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Şagadam score 0.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkadag | 4.1 | 0.6 | 8 | 7/15 | 13/15 |
| Şagadam | 0.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arkadag sit 1st in Ýokary Liga (84 points from 28 matches) and Şagadam sit 4th (40 points from 28 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arkadag | 28 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 105 | 15 | 84 |
| 4 | Şagadam | 28 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 33 | 32 | 40 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arkadag vs Şagadam?
- The Footlab model makes Arkadag the favourite at 90%, against 8% for a draw and 2% for Şagadam.
- Where and when is Arkadag vs Şagadam played?
- Arkadag vs Şagadam is played on August 30, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Ahal merkezi sport toplumy, in the Ýokary Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.