Merw vs Aşgabat: prediction and stats
Ýokary LigaRegular Season - 18Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Mary Stadiony, Mary
The Footlab model makes Aşgabat the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 31% for Merw. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Merw vs Aşgabat?
A very open match: only 56 Elo points separate Merw (1,247) and Aşgabat (1,303).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Merw have 4 wins, 1 draws and 10 defeats; Aşgabat have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ahal(away) | 0-4 | Ýokary Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Nebitci(home) | 0-1 | Ýokary Liga |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Arkadag(away) | 0-7 | Ýokary Liga |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Şagadam(home) | 2-0 | Ýokary Liga |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Köpetdag Aşgabat(away) | 0-2 | Ýokary Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Nebitci(away) | 1-1 | Ýokary Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Şagadam(home) | 1-0 | Ýokary Liga |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Ahal(away) | 3-4 | Ýokary Liga |
| Jun 13, 2026 | Arkadag(home) | 1-7 | Ýokary Liga |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Köpetdag Aşgabat(away) | 1-3 | Ýokary Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Merw win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Aşgabat win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | Aşgabat 5-1 Merw | Ýokary Liga |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Merw 2-1 Aşgabat | Ýokary Liga |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Aşgabat 2-1 Merw | Ýokary Liga |
| Aug 15, 2025 | Merw 1-2 Aşgabat | Ýokary Liga |
| May 9, 2025 | Merw 2-0 Aşgabat | Ýokary Liga |
| Mar 14, 2025 | Aşgabat 0-0 Merw | Ýokary Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Merw score 0.9 and concede 2.6 goals per match over their last 15; Aşgabat score 1.2 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merw | 0.9 | 2.6 | 1 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Aşgabat | 1.2 | 2.0 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Merw sit 8th in Ýokary Liga (11 points from 28 matches) and Aşgabat sit 6th (24 points from 28 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Aşgabat | 28 | 7 | 3 | 18 | 23 | 57 | 24 |
| 8 | Merw | 28 | 2 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 55 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Merw vs Aşgabat?
- The Footlab model makes Aşgabat the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 31% for Merw.
- Where and when is Merw vs Aşgabat played?
- Merw vs Aşgabat is played on August 30, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Mary Stadiony, in the Ýokary Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.