Arlanda vs Umeå FC: prediction and stats
Ettan - NorraNorra - 20Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC)Midgårdsvallen Konstgräs, Märsta
The Footlab model makes Arlanda the favourite at 63%, against 21% for a draw and 16% for Umeå FC. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arlanda vs Umeå FC?
Arlanda starts as the favourite with a 144-point Elo edge (1,665 vs 1,521).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arlanda have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Umeå FC have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | FBK Karlstad(home) | 5-1 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Ostersunds FK(home) | 1-2 | Svenska Cupen |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Stockholm Internazionale(away) | 1-4 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Piteå(home) | 0-0 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Hammarby Talang(away) | 1-5 | Ettan - Norra |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Enköping(home) | 0-0 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Gefle IF(away) | 0-2 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 9, 2026 | AFC Eskilstuna(home) | 1-3 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 2, 2026 | AFC Eskilstuna(away) | 0-1 | Ettan - Norra |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Täfteå(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Arlanda win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Umeå FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | Umeå FC 0-1 Arlanda | Ettan - Norra |
How many goals should we expect?
Arlanda score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Umeå FC score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arlanda | 1.7 | 1.3 | 7 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Umeå FC | 1.3 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arlanda sit 4th in Ettan - Norra (33 points from 18 matches) and Umeå FC sit 13th (17 points from 18 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Arlanda | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 30 | 20 | 33 |
| 13 | Umeå FC | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 21 | 30 | 17 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arlanda vs Umeå FC?
- The Footlab model makes Arlanda the favourite at 63%, against 21% for a draw and 16% for Umeå FC.
- Where and when is Arlanda vs Umeå FC played?
- Arlanda vs Umeå FC is played on September 6, 2026 at 12:30 PM (UTC) at Midgårdsvallen Konstgräs, in the Ettan - Norra.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.