Karlberg vs Arlanda: prediction and stats
Ettan - NorraNorra - 21Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Kristinebergs IP, Stockholm
The Footlab model makes Arlanda the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Karlberg. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Karlberg vs Arlanda?
A very open match: only 33 Elo points separate Karlberg (1,631) and Arlanda (1,665).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Karlberg have 8 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats; Arlanda have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | AFC Eskilstuna(home) | 0-3 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 18, 2026 | IK brage(home) | 2-0 | Svenska Cupen |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Stocksund(home) | 2-0 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Enköping(away) | 1-2 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stocksund(away) | 2-0 | Ettan - Norra |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | FBK Karlstad(home) | 5-1 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Ostersunds FK(home) | 1-2 | Svenska Cupen |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Stockholm Internazionale(away) | 1-4 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Piteå(home) | 0-0 | Ettan - Norra |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Hammarby Talang(away) | 1-5 | Ettan - Norra |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Karlberg win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Arlanda win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 13, 2026 | Arlanda 1-1 Karlberg | Ettan - Norra |
| Feb 8, 2026 | Karlberg 3-2 Arlanda | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Karlberg 1-3 Arlanda | Ettan - Norra |
| Jun 19, 2025 | Arlanda 0-1 Karlberg | Ettan - Norra |
| Sep 10, 2023 | Karlberg 2-0 Arlanda | Division 2 - Norra Svealand |
| May 13, 2023 | Arlanda 1-2 Karlberg | Division 2 - Norra Svealand |
How many goals should we expect?
Karlberg score 1.6 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Arlanda score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karlberg | 1.6 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Arlanda | 1.7 | 1.3 | 7 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Karlberg sit 8th in Ettan - Norra (24 points from 18 matches) and Arlanda sit 4th (33 points from 18 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Arlanda | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 30 | 20 | 33 |
| 8 | Karlberg | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 28 | 28 | 24 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Karlberg vs Arlanda?
- The Footlab model makes Arlanda the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Karlberg.
- Where and when is Karlberg vs Arlanda played?
- Karlberg vs Arlanda is played on September 12, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Kristinebergs IP, in the Ettan - Norra.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.