Armagh City vs Rathfriland: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 17Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Holm Park, Armagh
The Footlab model makes Rathfriland the favourite at 56%, against 23% for a draw and 21% for Armagh City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Armagh City vs Rathfriland?
Rathfriland starts as the favourite with a 231-point Elo edge (1,307 vs 1,076).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Armagh City have 0 wins, 6 draws and 9 defeats; Rathfriland have 6, 0 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Glenavon FC(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | H&W Welders(away) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Warrenpoint Town(away) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Queen's University(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Institute(home) | 1-4 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Newington Youth(away) | 0-4 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Newry City AFC(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Annagh United(away) | 2-4 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Loughgall(home) | 1-3 | Championship |
| May 1, 2026 | Knockbreda(away) | 4-0 | Premier Intermediate League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Armagh City win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Rathfriland win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2024 | Rathfriland 0-1 Armagh City | Premier Intermediate League |
| Oct 28, 2023 | Armagh City 1-0 Rathfriland | Premier Intermediate League |
Last archived meeting: Rathfriland vs Armagh City on Feb 10, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Armagh City score 0.5 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 15; Rathfriland score 1.6 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armagh City | 0.5 | 2.5 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Rathfriland | 1.6 | 1.9 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Armagh City sit 15th in Championship (2 points from 4 matches) and Rathfriland sit 16th (0 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Armagh City | 33 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 28 | 100 | 17 |
| 12 | Armagh City | 38 | 4 | 7 | 27 | 30 | 112 | 19 |
| 15 | Armagh City | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 2 |
| 16 | Rathfriland | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Armagh City vs Rathfriland?
- The Footlab model makes Rathfriland the favourite at 56%, against 23% for a draw and 21% for Armagh City.
- Where and when is Armagh City vs Rathfriland played?
- Armagh City vs Rathfriland is played on November 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Holm Park, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.