Glenavon FC vs Newry City AFC: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 17Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Mourneview Park, Lurgan
The Footlab model makes Glenavon FC the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Newry City AFC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Glenavon FC vs Newry City AFC?
Glenavon FC starts as the favourite with a 172-point Elo edge (1,416 vs 1,244).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Glenavon FC have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Newry City AFC have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Armagh City(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Strabane Athletic(home) | 4-1 | Championship |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Newry City AFC(away) | 4-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ards(home) | 1-3 | Championship |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ballymena United(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Warrenpoint Town(home) | 0-3 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rathfriland(away) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Glenavon FC(home) | 1-4 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ballinamallard United(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Bangor(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Glenavon FC win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Newry City AFC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | Newry City AFC 1-4 Glenavon FC | Championship |
| Nov 4, 2025 | Newry City AFC 1-0 Glenavon FC | League Cup |
| Apr 6, 2024 | Glenavon FC 3-2 Newry City AFC | Premiership |
| Dec 26, 2023 | Newry City AFC 0-4 Glenavon FC | Premiership |
| Nov 24, 2023 | Newry City AFC 0-3 Glenavon FC | Premiership |
| Aug 19, 2023 | Glenavon FC 1-3 Newry City AFC | Premiership |
Last archived meeting: Newry City AFC vs Glenavon FC on Aug 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Glenavon FC score 1.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Newry City AFC score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glenavon FC | 1.5 | 1.6 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Newry City AFC | 1.1 | 1.2 | 7 | 5/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Glenavon FC sit 4th in Championship (7 points from 4 matches) and Newry City AFC sit 10th (6 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Glenavon FC | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 7 |
| 10 | Newry City AFC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Glenavon FC vs Newry City AFC?
- The Footlab model makes Glenavon FC the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Newry City AFC.
- Where and when is Glenavon FC vs Newry City AFC played?
- Glenavon FC vs Newry City AFC is played on November 21, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Mourneview Park, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.