Arsenal Tula vs Shinnik Yaroslavl: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 31Kick-off on May 8, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Arsenal, Tula
The Footlab model makes Shinnik Yaroslavl the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Arsenal Tula. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arsenal Tula vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
A very open match: only 84 Elo points separate Arsenal Tula (1,771) and Shinnik Yaroslavl (1,855).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arsenal Tula have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Shinnik Yaroslavl have 7, 7 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Veles(away) | 0-2 | First League |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Rotor Volgograd(home) | 2-1 | First League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Leningradets(away) | 0-0 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Shinnik Yaroslavl(away) | 2-2 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Torpedo Moskva(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Volga Ulyanovsk(away) | 3-1 | First League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | FK Neftekhimik(away) | 2-0 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Arsenal Tula(home) | 2-2 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Nizhny Novgorod(away) | 0-3 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Torpedo Moskva(away) | 1-1 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Arsenal Tula win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Shinnik Yaroslavl win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Shinnik Yaroslavl 2-2 Arsenal Tula | First League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Shinnik Yaroslavl 2-0 Arsenal Tula | First League |
| Jul 25, 2025 | Arsenal Tula 1-1 Shinnik Yaroslavl | First League |
| Apr 20, 2025 | Shinnik Yaroslavl 2-1 Arsenal Tula | First League |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Arsenal Tula 1-1 Shinnik Yaroslavl | First League |
| May 25, 2024 | Shinnik Yaroslavl 1-0 Arsenal Tula | First League |
Last archived meeting: Shinnik Yaroslavl vs Arsenal Tula on Aug 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Arsenal Tula score 0.9 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Shinnik Yaroslavl score 1.7 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal Tula | 0.9 | 1.6 | 2 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Shinnik Yaroslavl | 1.7 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arsenal Tula sit 9th in First League (11 points from 8 matches) and Shinnik Yaroslavl sit 6th (12 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Shinnik Yaroslavl | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 12 |
| 9 | Arsenal Tula | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arsenal Tula vs Shinnik Yaroslavl?
- The Footlab model makes Shinnik Yaroslavl the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Arsenal Tula.
- Where and when is Arsenal Tula vs Shinnik Yaroslavl played?
- Arsenal Tula vs Shinnik Yaroslavl is played on May 8, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Arsenal, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.