Arsenal vs Chelsea: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 3Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Emirates Stadium, London
The Footlab model makes Arsenal the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Chelsea. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arsenal vs Chelsea?
Arsenal starts as the favourite with a 214-point Elo edge (2,363 vs 2,149).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arsenal have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Chelsea have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Manchester City(home) | 3-0 | Community Shield |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Como(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund(home) | 2-3 | Emirates Cup |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Real Betis(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Girona(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Real Sociedad(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Johor Darul Takzim FC(away) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | AC Milan(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Juventus(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tottenham(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Arsenal win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Chelsea win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | Arsenal 2-1 Chelsea | Premier League |
| Feb 3, 2026 | Arsenal 1-0 Chelsea | League Cup |
| Jan 14, 2026 | Chelsea 2-3 Arsenal | League Cup |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Chelsea 1-1 Arsenal | Premier League |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Arsenal 1-0 Chelsea | Premier League |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Chelsea 1-1 Arsenal | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Arsenal score 1.5 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Chelsea score 1.5 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 1.5 | 0.9 | 7 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Chelsea | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arsenal sit 1st in Premier League (85 points from 38 matches) and Chelsea sit 10th (52 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 38 | 26 | 7 | 5 | 71 | 27 | 85 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 38 | 14 | 10 | 14 | 58 | 52 | 52 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arsenal vs Chelsea?
- The Footlab model makes Arsenal the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Chelsea.
- Where and when is Arsenal vs Chelsea played?
- Arsenal vs Chelsea is played on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Emirates Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.