Newcastle vs Bournemouth: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 3Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)St. James' Park, Newcastle upon Tyne
The Footlab model makes Bournemouth the favourite at 40%, against 23% for a draw and 37% for Newcastle. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
A very open match: only 53 Elo points separate Newcastle (2,135) and Bournemouth (2,188).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Newcastle have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Bournemouth have 7, 7 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Strasbourg(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Everton(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Valencia(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Bristol City(away) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | FSV Mainz 05(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Real Betis(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Genoa(home) | 10-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | FC Augsburg(away) | 5-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | FC St. Pauli(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Newcastle win(s), 4 draw(s), 2 Bournemouth win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Newcastle 1-2 Bournemouth | Premier League |
| Jan 10, 2026 | Newcastle 2-2 Bournemouth | FA Cup |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Bournemouth 0-0 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Jan 18, 2025 | Newcastle 1-4 Bournemouth | Premier League |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Bournemouth 1-1 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Feb 17, 2024 | Newcastle 2-2 Bournemouth | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Newcastle vs Bournemouth on Apr 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Newcastle score 1.3 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Bournemouth score 2.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
| Bournemouth | 2.4 | 1.1 | 4 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Newcastle sit 12th in Premier League (49 points from 38 matches) and Bournemouth sit 6th (57 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Bournemouth | 38 | 13 | 18 | 7 | 58 | 54 | 57 |
| 12 | Newcastle | 38 | 14 | 7 | 17 | 53 | 55 | 49 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Newcastle vs Bournemouth?
- The Footlab model makes Bournemouth the favourite at 40%, against 23% for a draw and 37% for Newcastle.
- Where and when is Newcastle vs Bournemouth played?
- Newcastle vs Bournemouth is played on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at St. James' Park, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.