Hull City vs Aston Villa: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 3Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)The MKM Stadium, Hull
The Footlab model makes Aston Villa the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Hull City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 19, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Hull City vs Aston Villa?
Aston Villa is a heavy favourite: 2,237 Elo points against 1,929 — a 308-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hull City have 5 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats; Aston Villa have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Nice(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Kasımpaşa(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Rizespor(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Konyaspor(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Borussia Mönchengladbach(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Super Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Bayern München(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | BG Pathum United(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Real Sociedad(home) | 2-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Hull City win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Aston Villa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2019 | Aston Villa 2-2 Hull City | Championship |
| Aug 6, 2018 | Hull City 1-3 Aston Villa | Championship |
| Mar 31, 2018 | Hull City 0-0 Aston Villa | Championship |
| Aug 5, 2017 | Aston Villa 1-1 Hull City | Championship |
| Feb 10, 2015 | Hull City 2-0 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Aug 31, 2014 | Aston Villa 2-1 Hull City | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Aston Villa vs Hull City on Jan 19, 2019
How many goals should we expect?
Hull City score 1.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Aston Villa score 2.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hull City | 1.1 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Aston Villa | 2.0 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Aston Villa | 38 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 56 | 49 | 65 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Hull City vs Aston Villa?
- The Footlab model makes Aston Villa the favourite at 54%, against 25% for a draw and 22% for Hull City.
- Where and when is Hull City vs Aston Villa played?
- Hull City vs Aston Villa is played on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at The MKM Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.